Planning in an Uncertain World

Overview

We all make predictions in our personal and professional lives.  We base our decisions to marry, buy a house, launch a new product or hire staff on expectations about the future.  In the past few years, research into improving predictions has advanced. We will look at this research and current best practices in forecasting to help us prepare better budgets and projections. 

Prerequisites

Some budgeting and forecasting experience

Objectives

• Better understand factors which can cause predictions to be wrong

 

Highlights

• Why great predictions are not intuitive but the result of critical thinking, gathering information and updating predictions when needed
• How to separate correlation from causation
• How to recognize and overcome bias
• Who is Thomas Bayes and why he matters